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Probabilistic risk analysis of technological systems. Estimation of final event rate at a given initial state
This document provides guidance on probabilistic risk analysis (hereafter referred to as risk analysis) for the systems composed of electrotechnical items and is applicable (but not limited) to all electrotechnical industries where risk analyses are performed.
This document deals with the following topics from the perspective of risk analysis:
defining the essential terms and concepts;
specifying the types of events;
classifying the occurrences of events;
describing the usage of modified symbols and methods of graphical representation for ETA, FTA and Markov techniques for applying those modified techniques complementarily to the complex systems;
suggesting ways to handle the event frequency/rate of complex systems;
suggesting ways to estimate the event frequency/rate based on risk monitoring;
providing illustrative and practical examples.
The relationship between the events covered by this document and associated risks are described in Table 1. Risk is defined as the effect of uncertainty on objectives (see 3.1.1). The uncertainty is here assumed to be composed of two elements: the epistemic and aleatory. The epistemic is categorised into the known and unknown, and the effect of the aleatory is classified into the controlled and the uncontrolled, respectively. Therefore, the risk associated with the known event of which impact is controlled is the controlled risk, and the risk associated with the known event of which impact is not controlled is the uncontrolled risk. Favourable meta-risk is of an unknown event of which impact can be casually controlled even if this unknown event appears, and unfavourable meta-risk is of an unknown event of which impact cannot be controlled.
For example, the risks resulting from random hardware failures of electrotechnical items will be categorised into the controlled or uncontrolled risks, while the risks owing to software bugs could be classified into the favourable or unfavourable meta-risks. This document covers the controlled and uncontrolled risks resulting from the events that can be assumed to occur randomly and independently of time (see Clause 6, 9.1, 9.2, 9.5 and Clause B.3).
Table 1 – Events and associated risks
| Epistemic | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Known | Unknown | ||
| Aleatory | Controlled | Controlled Event risk | Controlled Meta-risk |
| Uncontrolled | Uncontrolled Event risk | Uncontrolled Meta-risk | |
| SDO | BSI: British Standards Institution |
| Document Number | IEC/TR 63039 |
| Publication Date | July 5, 2016 |
| Language | en - English |
| Page Count | 84 |
| Revision Level | |
| Supercedes | |
| Committee | DS/1 |